The nominee: Michael Shannon (Best Supporting Actor, Revolutionary Road)

How good is he? Shannon’s take on unfiltered outpatient John Givings is a movie-stealing turn that transcends the usual mentalist cliches for cold, clear humanity. He might see through the façade, but living in his world is no better…

What are the chances? Pretty good. Shannon takes a flatly written character and makes him full and rich and edgy. Didn’t go full retard, either – always good for Oscar hopes.

But - one word… Heath.


The nominee is: Melissa Leo (Best Actress, Frozen River)

How good is she? Incredibly good. As a small-town single mom out to better her childrens’ lives at any cost, she’s none more real and raw. She goes for a locked-in style – understated, wise and wary.

What are the chances? Middling. It’ll be tough to check the Winslet momentum and her nom has the token feel of Ryan Gosling’s recognition for a similarly human/humane performance in Half Nelson.